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Economic Data Detective

DATA DETECTIVE:
Tracking the New Zealand Economic Statistics
    Last Release Next Release
  Economic Measure Period Result Interest Rate Impact Actual Next Release Date Forecast Interest Rate Impact Forecast
  High Importance            
  Quarterly            
1 Real GDP, s.a. Q1 1.1% 20 Sep 0.6%
2 CPI Inflation Q2 +0.3% 16 Oct 0.7%
3 Unemployment Rate, s.a. Q2 6.8% 8 Nov 6.6%
4 Employment Growth, s.a. Q2 -0.1% 8 Nov 0.6%
5 Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Q2 99.9 Mid Sep 106
6 Labour Cost Index, Private Sector Q2 +0.5% 6 Nov 0.7%
7 NZIER QSBO Business Confidence Q2 -1% 10 Oct 10%
8 NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilisation Q2 89.8% 10 Oct 89.9%
9 Retail Sales Volumes, s.a.

Q2

-1.3%  14 Nov +0.6% 
  Monthly            
10 Building Consents. excl apt (Annual) Jul 19.9% 30 Sep 14.0%
11 Housing Credit Growth, RBNZ Jul 1.9% 30 Sep 2.0%
12 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Aug 114.1 14 Sep 115.5
13 REINZ Median House Prices (Annual) Jul 4.6% Mid Sep 2.8%
14 Electronic Card Transactions. Retail s.a. Jul -0.6% 11 Sep 0.8%
15 Net migration (Annual) Jul -3,800 21 Sep -3,700
16 NBNZ Business Survey Firms own Activity Aug 26.4 27 Sep 25.0
17 NBNZ Business Survey Inflation Expectation Aug 2.34% 27 Sep 2.50%
18 NBNZ Business Survey Pricing Intentions Aug 16.1 27 Sep 17
19 ANZ World Commodity Prices Jul -0.5% 4 Sep

+2.0%

20 PMI Manufacturing Confidence Index, s.a. Jul 49.4 13 Sep 50.3
21 Govt. Fiscal Balance** (3 months ended) bn May -NZD5.9   Early Sept -NZD6.5   
   Market Indicators            
22 NZD TWI (Average)

Aug

72.9    

Sep

71.0

23 Oil Prices (Dubai 1 mth) – USD average

Aug

108.1

Sep

105.0

24 US 10 Year Govt. Bond Yields average

Aug

1.67%     

Sep

1.75% 

        32
22
    3 0
24 
  Lower Importance            
   Quarterly            
1 Westpac Employment Confidence Index
Q2
96.2

Early Oct 99.5

2 PPI Input Inflation Q2 0.6% 19 Nov 0.7%
3 PPI Output Inflation Q2 0.3% 19 Nov 0.5%
4 Current Account Balance (Annual) bn Q1 -NZD1.3 19 Sep -NZD3.5
5 Export/Import Prices – Terms of trade Q2 -2.6% 3 Dec -2.0%
6 Merchandise Export Volumes, s.a. Q2 -0.4% 3 Dec 0.0%
7 Merchandise Import Volumes, s.a.

Q2

-3.1% 3 Dec +1.5%
8 Manufacturing Sales Volumes, s.a. Q1 +0.7% 10 Sep +1.8%
9 Wholesale Trade Sales, s.a. Q1 +2.5% 7 Sep +1.0%
  Monthly            
10 NBNZ Business Confidence Aug 19.5 27 Sep

16.5

11 Merchandise Trade Balance (Annual) bn Jul -NZD0.85 26 Sep -NZD0.40
        0 0
10
    0 0
10
*s.a. denotes seasonally adjusted
**OBERAC - Operating Balance Excluding Revaluations and Accounting Policy Changes
(Operating Balance less unrealised gains of the NZS Fund, GSF, EQC and ACC).